The forecasts provided by early warning systems (EWS) for tropical diseases can be useful in planning services for affected populations. As a result, more accurate estimates can be made for numbers of hospital beds needed, vaccinations, drugs and infection control measures.

Graduate student Luis Fernando Chaves, first author, and Professor Mercedes Pascual, recently published a research paper in PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. Using American cutaneous leishmaniasis as an example, their prediction accuracy for the disease burden was as high as 80 percent at time scales of one year or less. Incorporating climate data into their models raised accuracy. At least 2.1 million people are infected with Leishmaniasis annually from Leishmania protozoa, transmitted by sand flies.

Their research outlines three key components for a general approach for the development of EWS. Read the article.